ABSTRACT
This is a difficult regression task, where the aim is to predict the burned area of forest fires, in the northeast region of Portugal, by using meteorological and other data (see details at: [Web Link]).
Data Set Information:
Data Set Characteristics: Multivariate
Number of Instances: 517
Area: Physical
Attribute Characteristics: Real
Number of Attributes: 13
Date Donated: 2008-02-29
Associated Tasks: Regression
Missing Values? N/A
Number of Web Hits: 871088
In [Cortez and Morais, 2007], the output 'area' was first transformed with a ln(x+1) function.
Then, several Data Mining methods were applied. After fitting the models, the outputs were
post-processed with the inverse of the ln(x+1) transform. Four different input setups were
used. The experiments were conducted using a 10-fold (cross-validation) x 30 runs. Two
regression metrics were measured: MAD and RMSE. A Gaussian support vector machine (SVM) fed
with only 4 direct weather conditions (temp, RH, wind and rain) obtained the best MAD value:
12.71 +- 0.01 (mean and confidence interval within 95 using a t-student distribution). The
best RMSE was attained by the naive mean predictor. An analysis to the regression error curve
(REC) shows that the SVM model predicts more examples within a lower admitted error. In effect,
the SVM model predicts better small fires, which are the majority.
Source:
Paulo Cortez, pcortez '' dsi.uminho.pt, Department of Information Systems, University of Minho, Portugal.
Anbal Morais, araimorais '' gmail.com, Department of Information Systems, University of Minho, Portugal.
Relevant Papers:
[Cortez and Morais, 2007] P. Cortez and A. Morais. A Data Mining Approach to Predict Forest Fires using Meteorological Data. In J. Neves, M. F. Santos and J. Machado Eds., New Trends in Artificial Intelligence, Proceedings of the 13th EPIA 2007 - Portuguese Conference on Artificial Intelligence, December, Guimares, Portugal, pp. 512-523, 2007. APPIA, ISBN-13 978-989-95618-0-9. Available at: [Web Link]